Friends,
Perhaps you're familiar with Stoffel's "Antifragile" Scoring Framework. Based on the teachings of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, it takes a different aim towards investment analysis.
Instead of trying to figure out what all the potential growth levers are, when they'll hit, and exactly how much we should be willing to pay for them, the system takes a more holistic approach.
It simply asks: "As chaos and stressors hit this company over the years, will it break (be fragile), withstand the pressure (robust), or actually get stronger as a result (antifragile)."
It's far from a perfect model. That said, it has produced 21.5% annualized returns over the past nine years -- far outpacing the S&P 500 (15.0%) and the Nasdaq Composite (18.6%).
The scoring system has nine distinct parts. Recently, Stoffel's been playing with getting AI (Gemini, specifically) to fill out the score for him.
It turns out, Gemini is great at doing the work...most of the time.
Alas, the scores for the three most important parts consistently come back all over the board:
- A company's moat and its direction
- The potential for optionality -- or future growth
- An appropriate take on valuation
While all three of these things have hard data that's necessary to consult, they are also, by definition, subjective. And it's hard to imagine a world where that's not the case, no matter how great AI is.
That's why we don't think AI will be replacing stock picking anytime in the foreseeable future. The human element is not replaceable. That's because -- for all its focus on data -- investing is still part art, part science.
That's also what makes it one of the most fascinating pursuits you can devote time to.
Wishing you investing success in 2026 and beyond!
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Brian Feroldi, Brian Stoffel, & Brian Withers
Long-Term Mindset
P.S. It's Official, we are splitting up our YouTube Channel. Brian Stoffel is starting a new channel that will cover earnings, his portfolio moves, and more. Subscribe to his new channel by clicking here.
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