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Something very unusual happened in the stock market over the past two months. For now, it seems that investors like you and I just kicked Wall Street's butt.
To understand the dynamics at play, let's make a quick distinction. Stocks are bought and sold by two big groups:
Retail: Individuals who buy or sell stocks/funds for their own portfolios. They own about 38% of U.S. stock market wealth. Because they're technically "amateurs", such investors are often dubbed "dumb money."
Professional: These are Wall Street professionals who run major mutual and hedge funds. They manage other people's money, and often use sophisticated techniques.
According to The Wall Street Journal, retail investors poured tens of billions of dollars into the stock market as the market plunged on tariff-induced fears. At the same time, hedge funds sold off over $1 trillion in assets during the same time frame.
So far, it seems like retail investors have the winning strategy. The Nasdaq Composite has jumped over 20% since its April lows. And with the thawing of trade relations between the U.S. and China, combined with the possible margin-expanding force of AI, there are many reasons to be optimistic.
But is the other shoe about to fall? Are Wall Street investors about to go short the market and make a killing -- rendering the "dumb money" to, in fact, be "dumb money?"
Our crystal ball is broken, so we can't give you that answer.
But there is a nugget from The Wall Street Journal report that isn't getting enough attention. It has to do with why professional investors got caught -- proverbially -- with their pants down
"Hedge funds aren’t the first out the door necessarily because they panic or get weak in the knees. These funds usually rely on leverage, or borrowed money, to juice their returns. When stocks fall, [they are forced] to come up with quick cash to cover the hole." [emphasis added]
If there's one thing we've always preached, it's that leverage is a dangerous tool. Investors who truly value the long-term time horizon don't need it. Over a long enough time frame, it can do more damage than good.
And that's the only time frame we care about here. Good on all of us for retaining the flexibility to weather whatever the market throws our way.
Wishing you investing success,
Brian Feroldi, Brian Stoffel, & Brian Withers
Long Term Mindset
One simple graphic
One piece of timeless content
With all the stock market volatility lately, it's hard to take a long-term view. Ben Carlson from Ritholtz Wealth Management wrote about this recently in a piece titled Are You Bullish or Bearish?
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is a private, non-profit network of more than 1,800 academic economists. It's best known for the work of its Business Cycle Dating Committee, which identifies peaks and troughs in economic activity in the United States. Here's the FAQ related to their process.
