Friends,
It was June 2017; Feroldi had just sent Stoffel a copy of a RethinkX report. It talked about the future of self-driving cars. When Stoffel finished, he wrote an article stating:
"Itβs not easy to blow my mind. But earlier this week, I sat down and read a research report by RethinkX. Iβve been picking up the pieces of my consciousness ever since. Iβm now convinced that I β and you β will probably never buy another car again. Ever."
One prediction from the report: by 2024, one-third of all passenger miles globally would happen inside autonomous, electric vehicles.
This prediction has turned out to be astoundingly WRONG. The best estimates assume less than 1% of all passenger miles globally are happening in autonomous electric vehicles.
You might think that makes us bearish on Tesla's upcoming Robotaxi event happening tomorrow (October 10th).
You'd be wrong.
If you've ever studied disruptive innovation, you're familiar with the S-Curve: it shows how the adoption of new technology happens very slowly, and then -- all-of-a-sudden -- it explodes.
Railroads, televisions, microwaves, the Internet, and smartphones. For years, the adoption of these technologies moved at a snail's pace. Then -- all of a sudden -- it seemed like they were ubiquitous.
That's the S-Curve in action.
This begs the question: will RethinkX's prediction come true?
We still believe the answer is yes...just not in the timeframe they originally projected. How soon will it be? We have no idea!
But that's the beautiful thing about being a long-term investor: timing matters much less. Getting the big idea directionally right is usually more than enough for market-beating returns.
Wishing you investing success,
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Brian Feroldi, Brian Stoffel, & Brian Withers
Long Term Mindset
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